Predicting menopausal age with anti-Müllerian hormone: A cross-validation study of two existing models

Ramezani Tehrani, F. and Dólleman, M. and Van Disseldorp, J. and Broer, S.L. and Azizi, F. and Solaymani-Dodaran, M. and Fauser, B.C. and Laven, J.S.E. and Eijkemans, M.J.C. and Broekmans, F. (2014) Predicting menopausal age with anti-Müllerian hormone: A cross-validation study of two existing models. Climacteric, 17 (5). pp. 583-590.

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Objective This study aimed to cross-validate two comparable Weibull models of prediction of age at natural menopause from two cohorts, the Scheffer, van Rooij, de Vet (SRV) cohort and the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) cohort. It summarizes advantages and disadvantages of the models and underlines the need for achieving correct time dependency in dynamic variables like anti-Müllerian hormone. Methods Models were fitted in the original datasets and then applied to the cross-validation datasets. The discriminatory capacity of each model was assessed by calculating C-statistics for the models in their own data and in the cross-validation data. Calibration of the models on the cross-validation data was assessed by measuring the slope, intercept and Weibull shape parameter. Results The C-statistic for the SRV model on the SRV data was 0.7 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7-0.8) and on the TLGS data it was 0.8 (95% CI 0.8-0.9). For the TLGS model on the TLGS data, it was 0.9 (95% CI 0.8-0.9) and on the SRV data it was 0.7 (95% CI 0.6-0.8). After calibration of the SRV model on the TLGS data, the slope was 1, the intercept -0.3 and the shape parameter 1.1. The TLGS model on the SRV data had a slope of 0.3, an intercept of 12.7 and a shape parameter of 0.6. Conclusions Both models discriminate well between women that enter menopause early or late during follow-up. While the SRV model showed good agreement between the predicted risk of entering menopause and the observed proportion of women who entered menopause during follow-up (calibration) in the cross-validation dataset, the TLGS model showed poor calibration. © 2014 International Menopause Society.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: cited By 4
Uncontrolled Keywords: Muellerian inhibiting factor; biological marker; Muellerian inhibiting factor, adult; Article; calibration; cohort analysis; early menopause; female; follow up; human; major clinical study; menopause; prediction; predictor variable; statistical model; statistical parameters; validation study; biological model; blood; menopause; middle aged; onset age; time; young adult, Adult; Age of Onset; Anti-Mullerian Hormone; Biological Markers; Cohort Studies; Female; Humans; Menopause; Middle Aged; Models, Biological; Time Factors; Young Adult
Subjects: WP Gynecology
Depositing User: Ms Roya Vesal Azad
Date Deposited: 04 May 2019 05:17
Last Modified: 04 May 2019 05:17

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